Being a baseball fan is one thing; being an analyst is another. It is rare that the best possible outcomes for the two come together. 2020 was my year.
The Los Angeles Dodgers finished the abbreviated ’20 season with the best record in baseball at 43-17, good for a .717 win percentage. That’s the highest percentage by a team in a season of any length since the 1954 Indians went 111-43, .721. Add in post-season, and the Dodgers were 56-22, .718 – best since the mighty 1927 Yankees went 114-44, .722. Let that sink in.
And I not only predicted it all, but got to root “my” team to the title!
I have been a baseball fan since 1967, in most of those years trying to forecast the pennant races. Like most prognosticators, my record is spotty at best. There are too many variables which can derail a prediction, like injuries, random chance, and short post-season series. So, in the rare instances I get something right, it’s cause for crowing.
Such was the case this year. From my pre-season forecast, posted here on July 23: “Los Angeles, led by new acquisition Mookie Betts and a healthy Corey Seager, will have the best record in baseball, possibly topping .700… The Dodgers will end decades of frustration to reclaim the Commissioner’s Trophy.” In case you haven’t heard, after the Dodgers’ .717 regular season, they won four post-season match-ups to earn their first world championship since 1988. And the two players named were huge reasons, with Seager being named MVP of both the National League Championship Series and World Series.
Predicting the Dodgers would win their division was not a longshot. They had gone 106-56 in 2019, 21 games ahead of their nearest competitor. But I saw things that figured to make them even better in ’20: 1) The “Pythagorean” formula, based on runs scored and allowed, projected L.A. to win 110 games; in other words, they were even better than their ’19 record indicated. 2) They had acquired Betts, a dynamic five-tool player and former MVP with the Red Sox. 3) Fully recovered from his 2018 surgery, Seager figured to get back on the superstar career path he had established in 2016-17. Corey had had a decent comeback year in 2019, but really rediscovered his power stroke in the final month of that season, amassing seven homers and 26 RBI in September.
My becoming a Dodgers’ fan is a fairly recent phenomenon. I rooted for several different teams during my first quarter-century of fandom, usually whatever team Pete Rose was on. Of course, Rose was banned from baseball in 1989. After the Reds won it all in 1990, and I felt nothing, I realized I had become a non-denominational baseball fan, loving the game but no particular team. That remained true for my second quarter-century of fandom.
But two Dodgers’ players – or more accurately, their parents – changed my outlook. The first was Seager, who joined the team late in the 2015 season. Corey’s parents, Jody Bowers and Jeff Seager, were classmates of mine at Arlington High School in LaGrangeville, New York. (Sure, they were two grades behind me, and I barely knew them, but I claim a connection nonetheless.) Their oldest son, Kyle, had made the majors with the Seattle Mariners four years earlier, and was well on his way to a solid career; through 2020, he has hit 207 home runs despite a poor hitters’ park in Seattle, and earned a Gold Glove for his defense. The Seagers’ second son, Justin, also made it to the pros, playing five years in the minors. But by then, I was hearing from a family friend that Corey would be the cream of the crop – and he has been proven right. In his first full season in 2016, Seager was named NL Rookie of the Year and finished third in MVP voting. In ’17, he earned his second All-Star pick and second Silver Slugger Award. Shoulder surgery ended his 2018 season early, and its effects hampered his performance for most of 2019, but he was all the way back in 2020. The shortened schedule obscured the greatness of his numbers. Counting post-season, the Dodgers played 78 games in 2020. Seager’s combined statistics included 23 home runs and 61 RBI (projecting to 48 and 127 in a 162-game season), with a .312 batting average and .624 slugging percentage. How good is that? Only one regular shortstop (minimum 100 games) has ever posted a higher slugging percentage in a season: Alex Rodriguez, .631 in 1996. Not Honus Wagner, Ernie Banks, Cal Ripken, or Derek Jeter.
Cody Bellinger was the second reason for me to pull for the Dodgers, as he has roots in Oneonta, New York, a half-hour’s drive from my home base in Cooperstown. Cody’s father, Clay, was born in Oneonta and starred for the high school baseball team; several family members remain in the area. Clay became a local hero when he made it to the pros in 1989, starting a nomadic 16-year career as a solid, versatile minor league player. He finally made it to The Show at age 30 in 1999, joining the Yankees as a super-sub. Bellinger helped the team to two World Series in the next three years, playing every position except pitcher and catcher. But Clay’s son, Cody (born in Arizona), has far outperformed his father. Cody joined the Dodgers four weeks into the 2017 season, and proceeded to set an NL record (since broken) with 39 home runs as a rookie. He was the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year, 2018 NLCS MVP, and 2019 league MVP.
Nevertheless, rooting for the Dodgers became a teeth-gnashing experience. They made it to the 2017 World Series, but lost to the technologically-superior Astros in seven games. L.A. made it to the 2018 World Series, but lost to the Red Sox in five games. Despite their gaudy record in ’19, the Dodgers didn’t make it past the first round of playoffs, losing to the ultimate-world-champion Washington Nationals in the NLDS. Dave Roberts’s questionable managerial decisions often cost the Dodgers, in my opinion. In Game Four of the 2018 Fall Classic, for example, Rich Hill was pitching a gem, having allowed just one hit in six-and-a-third innings, and thrown only 91 pitches. He had a 4-0 lead over the Red Sox, and L.A. was eight outs away from evening the Series at two games apiece. This was following their epic 18-inning win the night before, so the Dodgers’ momentum was palpable.
So, naturally, Roberts had to prove what a great strategist he is. He brought in Scott Alexander, who walked the only batter he faced on four pitches. Then came Ryan Madson, who promptly surrendered a three-run homer (and was credited with a “hold”!). Four more relief pitchers followed and, by the time the Dodgers got those eight outs, they were losing, 9-4. The six relievers faced 18 batters, surrendering three walks, seven hits (including two homers), and eight earned runs for a 27.00 ERA. The final score was 9-6 and, instead of being tied at two games apiece, the Dodgers were in the hole, three games to one. Their momentum and morale shot, they sleepwalked through Game Five as the Red Sox – admittedly a better team – finished them off.
So it was heartening to see the Dodgers benefit from another manager’s questionable decision in 2020. In the final game of the World Series, Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell had L.A. handcuffed into the sixth inning. The former Cy Young Award-winner led 1-0, and had thrown only 73 pitches and surrendered just two singles and no walks. But after the second single, Rays’ manager Kevin Cash abruptly yanked Snell, turning the game over from his ace starter to his bullpen. They instantaneously blew the lead, and the Dodgers went on to win, 3-1.
I’ve taken some ridicule from colleagues for not being “woke” enough to embrace modern pitching strategies. All I know is, if I’m in a do-or-die game, and I have one of the best starting pitchers in baseball on the mound, it would have to be a desperate situation for me to replace him with my seventh- or eighth-best pitcher and hope for the best.
But, whatever. My team is the best, and I told you so.
Dizzy Deane 