Fun with the Baseball-Reference Comparison Tool

Posted on August 25, 2026August 25, 2026 by billdeane14

Anyone reading this is probably familiar with baseball-reference.com, but if not, please take a few hours to explore it. It combines over a century’s worth of baseball research and compilation (including mine) into an indispensable resource for fans and students of the game.

One of its fun features is the ability to compare two or more players’ seasons or careers. Baseball fans have been trying to do that since Alexander Cartwright hit his first foul tip, but now we can do it in side-by-side résumés. I thought I’d dig up some things I’d written more than a quarter-century ago, and use the comparison tool to illustrate (or refute) my points. These were written for the SABR Listserver between 1998-2001, around the time B-R.com was getting off the ground:

<< The 2001 Hall of Fame ballots will soon be distributed. Among the first-year candidates on it will be Kirby Puckett, who stands a good chance of being elected on his first try.

I thought about this after reading Michael Olenick’s thought-provoking post about Tony Oliva, and how the DH rule – while extending his career – may have sabotaged his Hall of Fame prospects. There are more than a few similarities between Oliva and Puckett: Twins’ outfielders who hit for high average with medium power, perennial MVP candidates who never won the award, players whose careers were prematurely cut short by physical problems. Yet, Oliva mustered just 15% of the vote on his first try on the Hall of Fame ballot, and topped out at 50%.

Oliva’s dominance was disguised by the low offense in the AL during his hey-day. From 1962-72, Oliva batted .313 while the league average (weighted for his number of at bats each year) was .243. In his eight full pre-injury seasons, 1964-71, his finishes in the batting race were first, first, second, eighth, third, third, third, and first.

Here’s a comparison between Oliva and Puckett in some key areas:

MVP Voting – Oliva had finishes of second (twice), fourth, sixth, and tenth, amassing a total of 1.90 award shares. Puckett had finishes of second, third (twice), sixth, and seventh (three times), totaling 2.55 shares. Advantage: Puckett.

Black ink – Besides the three batting titles, Oliva led the AL in hits five times, in doubles four times, and in runs and slugging once each, for a total of 14 league leaderships in important offensive categories. Puckett led in hits four times, RBI once, and batting once, a total of six. Advantage: Oliva.

All-Star selections – Oliva was an All-Star in each of his first eight full seasons. Puckett was an All-Star in each of his last ten seasons. Advantage: Puckett.

Post-Season – Oliva helped the Twins to the 1965 AL title and the 1969-70 divisional titles, batting .314 in post-season play with 3 homers in 13 games. Puckett helped the Twins to the 1987 and 1991 world championships, hitting .309 with 5 homers in 24 games. Too close to call.

Batting – Oliva averaged 5.96 runs created per 27 outs, as compared to the league’s 4.00, so he was 49% better than average. Puckett had 6.08 RC/27 to the league’s 4.57, 33% better than average. Oliva had 238 adjusted batting wins, Puckett 216 in more games. Advantage: Oliva.

Baserunning – Oliva was 86-55 as a base-stealer; Puckett was 134-76, both mediocre (though Puckett had the advantage of turf). Puckett ground into a lot more double plays, but he was right-handed. Of course, Oliva could only hobble during his DH years, which couldn’t have helped his team much. Advantage: none.

Defense – Oliva, a right fielder, won a Gold Glove Award, and had 76 fielding runs, but led the AL in errors three times. Puckett, a center fielder, won six Gold Gloves while leading the league in putouts three times and assists twice, and amassing 137 fielding runs. Advantage: Puckett.

So, who was better? It looks pretty close to me. And yet, Kirby may make it to Cooperstown before he turns 40, while Tony waits outside at age 60. >> (October 13, 2000)

Puckett was elected on his first try at age 39 in 2001; Oliva finally made it in via an old-timers’ committee at 81 in 2022. Here’s the baseball-reference comparison:

<< Some observations about the recent [2001] Hall of Fame election:

Following are the career numbers for two first-year candidates:

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG

Player A: 1785 7003 1007 2153 442 20 222 1099 .307 .358 .471

Player B: 1783 7244 1071 2304 414 57 207 1085 .318 .360 .477

By now, most of you know who the two are, but play along with me. Player A led his league in hits twice, doubles three times, total bases twice, and RBI, batting, and slugging once each. He won nine Gold Gloves and six All-Star selections, earned 2.22 MVP Award shares (winning it once), and was a very popular player.

Player B led the same league in hits four times, total bases twice, and RBI and batting once each. He won six Gold Gloves and ten All-Star selections, earned 2.55 MVP Award shares (never winning it), and was a very popular player.

Now, which received 82% of the vote, and which received 28% of the vote? And which was the beneficiary of “New York bias”? Or racial bias? >> (January 19, 2001)

Player A was Don Mattingly, and B was Puckett again. Puckett was elected in his first year of eligibility; Mattingly actually went steadily down from the 28% and a quarter-century later has still not been elected. The so-called “New York bias” didn’t seem to help the Yankees’ Mattingly, nor did racial bias hurt the African-American Puckett. Here’s the b-r comparison:

<< Now try these two catchers:

Catcher C: 324 homers, 8 All-Star selections, 3 Gold Gloves.

Catcher D: 324 homers, 11 All-Star selections, 3 Gold Gloves.

Which of these received 65% of the vote, and which received 2%?

In his fourth try, Gary Carter (Catcher D) surpassed the 60% barrier, ensuring future consideration by the Veterans’ Committee, in case he doesn’t make it via the BBWAA. Lance Parrish (Catcher C) wasn’t so lucky. He was eliminated from further consideration for failing to reach 5% of the vote. >> (January 19, 2001)

Carter was elected by the BBWAA two years later; Parrish never again got consideration. Baseball-Reference indicates that the voters got it right:

<< Pitching out of a neutral home park, [Sandy] Koufax could easily have won just one of the five ERA titles — and suddenly his Hall of Fame credentials would look a lot like Ron Guidry’s. >> (March 6, 1999)

Koufax was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first try back in 1972, and remains considered among the all-time great pitchers. Guidry topped out at 8% of the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote. I remain convinced that they have very similar credentials, but Koufax is grossly overrated and Guidry underrated. B-R seems to support this:

<< There has been some discussion here about Steve Garvey’s showing in Hall of Fame balloting, compared to Dave Parker’s. I have what I think is a more intriguing comparison involving Garvey.

Garvey debuted on the Hall of Fame ballot the same year (1993) as another directly-comparable first baseman, Cecil Cooper.

Garvey batted .294 lifetime with 272 homers. Cooper batted .298 with 241. Garvey played considerably more games, 2332-1896, but Cooper outshines Garvey on a per-162-game basis:

Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG

Cooper 628-86-187-35-4-21-96-8-.298-.340-.466
Garvey 614-79-181-31-3-19-91-6-.294-.333-.446

Garvey batted .300 or better seven times; Cooper, eight. Garvey had five 100-RBI seasons; Cooper, four. Garvey had two league leaderships in important batting categories; Cooper, four. Garvey was named to ten All-Star teams, Cooper five. Garvey won four Gold Glove Awards; Cooper, two. Garvey finished in the top five in MVP voting twice; Cooper, three times. Garvey played in five World Series; Cooper, two. Garvey rates as a minus-5.2 in the Linear Weights system; Cooper, +7.6.

Now, without the following disclaimer, I know somebody would have quoted me as saying Cooper is better than Garvey, or that Cooper belongs in the Hall of Fame (or that Ron Guidry is no good, or that Tom Gordon is better than Sandy Koufax). That’s not what I’m saying at all; I’m saying Garvey and Cooper have very comparable credentials. Which leads to the point of this post, the “what’s-wrong-with-this-picture?” punch-line:

In the 1993 balloting, Garvey got 176 votes, establishing himself as a bona fide Hall of Fame candidate. Cooper got zero, and was dropped from further consideration. >> (February 19, 1998)

Neither player has gotten elected, and B-R suggests neither deserves to, but supports my contention that they were similar players:

<< On the subject of Gil Hodges for the Hall, I always thought Rocky Colavito was an interesting comparison. Hodges had 370 homers and a .273 average, Colavito 374 and .266. Both hit four homers in a game. Hodges was rated an outstanding glove-man, but Colavito was also a highly regarded fielder, and at a more important position. Hodges finished no higher than seventh in MVP voting, and accumulated just .66 award shares during his career; Colavito had 1.45, with finishes of 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 8th. Hodges had no significant offensive league leaderships; Colavito led in HR, RBI, BB and SLG in various years. Hodges received 3,010 votes in Hall of Fame elections; Colavito received three. >> (February 5, 2000)

Hodges was elected in 2022; Colavito still gets no love. B-R indicates they are a close match:

<< As to someone who fits John’s statement [that “No other slugger has benefited so much from his home park” as Mel Ott], I’d nominate either Chuck Klein or Gavvy Cravath, both of whom called Philadelphia’s Baker Bowl home for most of their careers. Klein’s numbers (also in the first Total Baseball) show that he had a lifetime batting average of .397 and slugging percentage of .708 at Baker Bowl, .277 (precisely the league average) and .450 at all other parks. Per 154 games played, Klein averaged 44 homers, 158 RBI, and that .397 average at the Bowl, 18-80-.277 elsewhere. Clearly, he would not have been a Hall of Famer if it were not for his home park. Wally Berger was a far superior player hidden in a much tougher park, and nobody talks about him for Cooperstown. >> (January 21, 1999)

B-R indicates Berger was not “far superior” to Klein, but was comparable, and neither jumps out as Hall of Fame-caliber:

Larry Doby and the 1954 AL MVP Award

Posted on June 11, 2026 by billdeane14

In the first 75 years that RBI was an official stat, there were 20 occasions in which someone played on a first-place team and led his league in both home runs and runs batted in. Only one of those players was eligible for his league’s MVP Award, but did not win it: Larry Doby in 1954. Some suggest that this was evidence of racism against the African-American player.

First, a little bit about Doby. Before he was a star player in the 1940s and ‘50s, he was something of a child prodigy: he started playing semi-pro baseball at age 13, and in high school was an All-State athlete in football and basketball, as well as baseball. Doby started his pro career in the Negro National League at age 18 in 1942, and was a standout from the start. In parts of five seasons with the Newark Eagles, sandwiched around 2½ years in the U.S. Navy, Doby batted .340 with a .591 slugging percentage.

On July 5, 1947, Doby became the first black player in American League history, debuting with the Cleveland Indians just 80 days after the National League’s Jackie Robinson. Everyone knows about Robinson and the difficulties he went through in breaking the color line, but Doby was right behind him and faced the same kind of racism and loneliness. He lost seven pounds in his first month in the majors due to nerves, and he often spoke to Robinson on the phone for mutual moral support. Larry got only 32 at bats in 1947. A natural second baseman, he had trouble cracking the lineup, since Cleveland already had future Hall of Famer Joe Gordon at second.

Learning a new position under the tutelage of Hall of Famer Tris Speaker, Doby became the Indians’ regular center fielder in 1948. By that time, between his color and his military service, he had lost up to six prime years of MLB play. In his first full season, he batted .301 and helped the team to the World Series. Doby was the Indians’ top hitter in the 1948 Series win over the Boston Braves. His 400-foot homer in Game 4 proved to be the game-winner in a 2-1 victory. Newspapers around the country carried a photo of Doby and winning pitcher Steve Gromek, who was white, joyously embracing each other in the clubhouse. It may not seem unusual today, but in 1948 it was considered a huge milestone in race relations, and not just in baseball.

Despite his delayed start, Doby became a premier player. He hit with very good power, winning two home run titles and posting five 100-RBI seasons in a seven-year span. In various years, Doby led the AL in runs scored, runs batted in, slugging and on-base percentage, in addition to homers. He earned seven straight All-Star selections, and led Cleveland to two World Series. Doby played an important defensive position well, and he didn’t miss too many games.

In the mid-1950s, Doby started suffering from various physical ailments, including a chronic ulcer, a wrist injury, and a skin infection. In a four-year period, he saw diminishing playing time, and shuttled from the Indians to the White Sox, Orioles, Indians again, Tigers, White Sox again, and finally the minor leagues, where his 1959 season – and his U.S. baseball career – was ended by an ankle injury.

Doby later returned to the big leagues as a coach. He spent seven years on the coaching lines for the Expos, Indians, and White Sox in the 1970s, and got a brief taste of managing with the 1978 Sox. Larry thus became the second black manager in the majors, following another Robinson, Frank. Doby might have become the first, four years earlier. The Indians were slumping under manager Ken Aspromonte during the 1974 season, and according to rumors the team was going to fire Aspromonte and promote Doby – who had managed briefly in the minors and in winter ball – from the coaching staff. But Cleveland went on a winning streak and the rumors stopped. After the season, in which the Indians finished 77-85, both Aspromonte and Doby were fired, and Robinson was named the team’s player-manager.

Larry Doby was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1998, as much for his role as a pioneer as for his playing record in the Negro and major leagues. He died in 2003. In 2012, he was honored on a U.S. postage stamp. Here are a few bits of trivia about Larry Doby:

He and his wife, Helen, were married for almost 55 years before her death. One of their five children, Larry Jr., played in the minor leagues.
A baby born in Cleveland in 1950 was named Larry Doby Johnson. Johnson wound up playing in parts of five seasons as a major league catcher in the 1970s.
Doby was fined $150 for his role in throwing the first punch in the celebrated June 13, 1957 brawl with the Yankees. He was reacting to a beanball thrown by pitcher Art Ditmar.
Although he played just 21 games with the 1959 White Sox before being demoted to the minors, the team voted him a half-share of World Series money.
Offered a $20,000 contract as a player, teacher, and goodwill ambassador, Doby spent 1962 in Japan with the Chunichi Dragons. He and Don Newcombe were the first former major leaguers to play in Japan. But Doby batted just .225 with 10 homers in 72 games, and returned to the U.S.
Doby toured the U.S. as a representative of President Lyndon Johnson’s Physical Fitness Program.
As Expos’ first base coach in 1972, Doby was fined $50 for fraternizing with the Braves’ Henry Aaron. Nowadays, fraternizing seems to be encouraged, but if there were a fine, it would probably be a tad more than $50.
In 1976, Doby was robbed of $189 and jewelry, including his 1948 World Series ring, by a knife-wielding man dressed as a woman. The ring was recovered.
Doby took a job as Director of Community Relations for the New York Nets basketball team starting in 1979.
In 1999, Doby became part-owner of five minor league baseball teams, joining Mike Veeck, entertainer Bill Murray, and two others in the venture.

So, let’s get to the 1954 American League MVP controversy. The Cleveland Indians won the AL pennant that year with the highest winning percentage in league history: 111 wins, just 43 losses, for a .721 percentage. (That’s still the record for percentage, though the win total has been surpassed in the 162-game season.) Indians’ center fielder Larry Doby led the AL in home runs (32) and runs batted in (126). Yet he did not win the league’s Most Valuable Player award; that honor went to catcher Yogi Berra of the second-place Yankees.

Of course, Berra was one of the best, if not the best, all-around catchers in baseball history. This was his second of three MVP Awards, in the midst of a seven-year stretch in which he finished third, first, fourth, second, first, first, and second in the voting.

Anyway, back to Doby. I wondered how rare it was that a player on a pennant-winning team, who led the league in homers and RBI, did not win the MVP. So I checked, starting in 1920 (when the RBI became an official stat) and going through 1993 (the last year before the leagues went to three divisions each; being on a first-place team is not as significant when there are three in each league rather than one or two). I had to eliminate two of Babe Ruth’s seasons, 1926 and ’28, because he was not eligible for the MVP (Ruth had won the award in 1923, and a rule stated that past winners were not eligible for future awards). That left 18 instances of players on first-place teams, 1920-93, who led their leagues in both homers and RBI, and who were eligible for the MVP Award:

MVP AWARD CANDIDATES WHO PLAYED ON FIRST-PLACE TEAMS AND LED THEIR LEAGUES IN HOME RUNS AND RBI, 1920-93

YEAR	LG	Player, Team	HR	RBI	AVG	MVP
1923	AL	Babe Ruth, Yankees	41	131	.393	1^st
1928	NL	Jim Bottomley, Cardinals	31	136	.325	1^st
1935	AL	Hank Greenberg, Tigers	36	170	.328	1^st
1940	AL	Hank Greenberg, Tigers	41	150	.340	1^st
1941	NL	Dolph Camilli, Dodgers	34	120	.285	1^st
1954	AL	Larry Doby, Indians	32	126	.272	2^nd
1956	AL	Mickey Mantle, Yankees	52	130	.353	1^st
1957	NL	Henry Aaron, Braves	44	132	.322	1^st
1961	AL	Roger Maris, Yankees	61	141	.269	1^st
1966	AL	Frank Robinson, Orioles	49	122	.316	1^st
1967	AL	Carl Yastrzemski, Red Sox	44	121	.326	1^st
1969	AL	Harmon Killebrew, Twins	49	140	.276	1^st
1970	NL	Johnny Bench, Reds	45	148	.293	1^st
1972	NL	Johnny Bench, Reds	40	125	.270	1^st
1973	AL	Reggie Jackson, A’s	32	117	.293	1^st
1980	NL	Mike Schmidt, Phillies	48	121	.286	1^st
1988	AL	José Canseco, Athletics	42	124	.307	1^st
1989	NL	Kevin Mitchell, Giants	47	125	.291	1^st

Key: LG = League (AL = American League, NL = National League); HR = home runs; RBI = runs batted in; AVG = batting average; MVP = rank in league Most Valuable Player Award voting. Notes: RBI did not become an official statistic until 1920; Babe Ruth otherwise qualified, but was not eligible for the MVP in 1926 or 1928; major leagues went to three divisions in each league in 1994.

As you can see, of the 18, Larry Doby is the only one who did not win the MVP Award. So, the question is, “Why?” Was it racism against Doby? (And ironically, if we go past 1993, the next player to lead his league in homers and RBI for a first-place team, but not win the MVP, was another black Indians’ outfielder: Albert Belle in 1995.)

While I would not categorically dismiss the racism angle in Doby’s case, I would say that there were a couple of more compelling factors at work in the 1954 voting.

One was that baseball statistics were looked at differently than they are today. We know now that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are the two most important traditional batting stats, and that Doby excelled in those categories. But until the past generation, batting average was considered the single most important individual hitting statistic. Few people paid attention or gave credit to batters like Doby who drew a lot of walks, and on-base percentage didn’t even become an official stat until 1984. Slugging percentage was an afterthought among statisticians, listed among “miscellaneous batting statistics” each year. So, Doby with his modest .272 batting average that year, suffered for these perceptions. You can see that he ranks close to the bottom in batting average among these 18 player-seasons, far lower than those before him. For that matter, he ranks near the bottom in home runs, too. Berra hit .307 with 22 homers and 125 RBI that year, incidentally.

Second was the fact that the Indians had several viable candidates for the MVP Award. As early as August, the press was speculating as to which Indian might win the award. Besides Doby, Cleveland second baseman Bobby Avila won the AL batting title with a .341 average, and added 15 home runs. Third baseman Al Rosen, the 1953 MVP, had 102 RBI and a .300 average. Three pitchers had impressive won-lost records: Bob Lemon (23 wins, 7 losses), Early Wynn (23-11), and Mike Garcia (19-8). Voters liked the idea of giving the MVP Award to an Indian, but couldn’t agree on which Indian, and they wound up scattering their votes among them. As you can see below, Doby got five first-place votes and 210 points in finishing second. Avila received five first-place votes and 203 points for third place. Lemon had five first-place votes and 179 points, fifth place. And Wynn got 72 points, giving the Indians four of the top six finishers. Also, Rosen got 16 points, Garcia 6, and catcher Jim Hegan 5. So Indians’ players totaled 691 points, more than half of the points available; no other AL team that year had more than 291. But because the Indians’ votes were so spread out, Berra – the only Yankee in the top ten – managed to emerge on top with 230 points, though just seven of the 24 voters ranked him first. As he said, in a typical Yogi-ism, “It looks to me like the Indians had too many great players for one of them to get the reward (sic). They busted up the vote.”

1954 AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP VOTING (TOP TEN)

Player, Team	1^st-Place Votes	Total Points
Yogi Berra, Yankees	7	230
Larry Doby, Indians	5	210
Bobby Avila, Indians	5	203
Minnie Minoso, White Sox	2	186
Bob Lemon, Indians	5	179
Early Wynn, Indians		72
Ted Williams, Red Sox		65
Harvey Kuenn, Tigers		37
Nellie Fox, White Sox		30
Mickey Vernon, Senators		30

Even looking with 20-20 hindsight, it is hard to argue that Doby deserved the MVP Award in 1954. In fact, he may have been lucky to finish second! Except for his high RBI total, it was really no better than an average year for Doby. Of his seven full big league seasons to that point, he had his worst on-base percentage in 1954, and his second-worst slugging percentage. In Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, Doby ranks sixth with 5.7, behind Minoso (8.2), Williams (7.5), Avila (7.1), the Yankees’ Mickey Mantle (6.9), and Detroit pitcher Steve Gromek (6.0). And according to Bill James’s “Win Shares,” which I think are the superior modern measurement of player value, Mantle was the best player in the AL in 1954 with 36 WS, followed by Berra and Avila with 34 each, and then Doby with 33.

So, if anyone should have been complaining, it was Mickey Mantle, who finished tied for 15^th in the MVP voting!

50 Years Ago: The Year of The Bird

Posted on May 1, 2026 by billdeane14

This month marks the 50^th anniversary of the emergence of one of baseball history’s greatest sensations, Mark “The Bird” Fidrych. It was May 15, 1976 that Fidrych got his big break, and kicked off a season for the ages. Following is his chapter from my book, Baseball’s Who’s Who of What Ifs (McFarland, 2021):

Rarely if ever has a single player lit up the baseball world the way Mark Fidrych did in 1976. The Bird flew in from nowhere, soared to great heights, and flew off almost as suddenly as he came.

Mark Steven Fidrych was born August 14, 1954 in Worcester, Massachusetts, the second of four children (the rest girls, Paula, Carol Ann, and Lorie Jean) of Paul and Virginia Fidrych in a religious family. Paul was a Polish-American schoolteacher, while Virginia was of Danish ancestry. Mark grew up in nearby Northborough, where he played Little League baseball. A hyperactive and none-too-studious child, Mark was held back in both first and second grade, resulting in his being nearly 20 years old by the time he finished high school. He did well in football and basketball as well as baseball, but lost his sports eligibility due to his age. Mark then transferred from Algonquin Regional High in Northborough to the private Worcester Academy for his senior year, with his father taking out a loan to pay the tuition. Though he was a good pitcher, no one could have predicted that Mark would be a major league star two years later.

Unbeknownst to Mark, he had been scouted by the Tigers in high school. Joe Kusick liked not only what he saw on the field – good speed and excellent control – but the right-handed pitcher’s long, lanky (6-3, 175 pounds) body. So Fidrych was totally surprised when Detroit picked him in the tenth round (232^nd player selected) of the June 5, 1974 amateur draft. He was pumping gas at the Pierca Gas and Oil Station in Northborough when he got the news. Upon hearing that he had been drafted, his first thought was that he would be off to military service. Fidrych signed for a $3,000 bonus and joined the Bristol, Virginia Tigers of the Appalachian (rookie) League, where he was put in the bullpen. It was there that coach Jeff Hogan nicknamed the gangly, beak-nosed, curly-locked blonde “Big Bird,” for his resemblance to the Sesame Street character. Fidrych turned in a 3-0 record with seven saves and a 2.38 ERA in 23 appearances.

Fidrych’s most dramatic (but unpublicized) saves that year took place off the field. There was a car wreck outside the trailer Fidrych shared with a teammate. The Bird went outside to see the car on fire, and hear two small children crying from the back seat. He went through the car window in the dark and pulled both kids out of the car to safety.

Fidrych made a rapid rise through the Tigers’ system in 1975, improving at each stop. He started with Lakeland of the Class-A Florida State League, posting a less-than-imposing 5-9 record and 3.77 ERA. Nonetheless, he moved up to Montgomery of the AA Southern League, where he went 2-0 with four saves and a 3.21 ERA in 14 relief appearances. Fidrych’s final stop was with AAA Evansville, where he logged a 4-1 record and 1.58 ERA, adding a 12-inning victory in the American Association championship game.

Fidrych went to spring training with the Tigers as a non-roster invitee in 1976. He mostly pitched batting practice, and had little success in his few innings of game action. But manager Ralph Houk had seen him in the winter instructional league and liked his “fantastic concentration.” Fidrych made the team as its tenth pitcher, signing for the minimum salary of $16,500. Topps did not issue a baseball card for him that year, and the flaky Fidrych did not even hook up a telephone, rhetorically asking, “Who would I call?”

Pitching for the Tigers would be a challenge. Detroit had finished with the worst record in baseball in 1975 at 57-102, drawing barely a million fans. They scored the fewest runs in the AL, and ranked near the bottom of the league in defense as well. Moreover, the city of Detroit was “a disaster – almost a battle ground – where it is no longer safe to walk the streets,” according to famed Detroit sportswriter Joe Falls. Baseball, too, was in dire straits, suffering in popularity and attendance due to labor upheavals and other factors. It was not a promising environment for a rookie pitcher.

Fidrych, wearing uniform #20, made two brief relief appearances, facing just six batters in the first 37 days of the 1976 season. He finally got a chance to start a game on May 15, due to the illness of scheduled starter Joe Coleman. Fidrych made it count. He had a no-hitter for six innings, and finished with a two-hit victory over Cleveland. Despite taking a 2-0 loss in his next spot-start against Boston ten days later, Fidrych pitched well and earned a place in the Tigers’ regular rotation. He displayed a 93 mph fastball and a sinking slider with pinpoint control, consistently locating his pitches just above the knees. He became the fastest-working pitcher in the AL, averaging just two hours, 11 minutes per start, according to Bill James.

Fidrych proceeded to run off six straight wins, and was gathering buzz in Detroit as an eccentric character as well as an outstanding pitcher. The media was entertained by his malapropisms, guileless modesty, and casual profanity in explaining his success and his offbeat antics. The Bird would get on his hands and knees to landscape the pitcher’s mound, stop to shake hands with teammates who made good plays behind him, and seemingly talk to the ball before he threw it. “I’m not so much talking to the ball as addressing myself,” Fidrych explained. “It’s my way of keeping myself in the ball game… (I)t’s necessary for a pitcher because when you lose your mind, the ball is lost.” The Detroit fans loved him. According to long-time broadcaster Ernie Harwell, Fidrych became the “first big leaguer to take curtain calls on a regular basis.”

This was long before the days of ESPN or MLB Network, so Fidrych’s success was just a rumor to most fans. That was about to change.

On June 28, Fidrych faced the Yankees – on their way to the AL pennant – in a nationally-televised ABC Monday Night Baseball game. Going through his usual antics, Fidrych pitched a complete game, 5-1 victory. The Bird instantly went from a Detroit curiosity to a national phenomenon. After the game, the Yankees’ star Thurman Munson – en route to the 1976 AL MVP Award – snorted that Fidrych was a “fly-by-night” and a “showboat.” Asked to respond to the remarks, Fidrych said, “Who’s Thurman Munson?”

Fidrych was named the AL Player of the Month for June. Chosen for the AL All-Star team, he was picked to start the 1976 Midsummer Classic. “I guess this is my biggest thrill since I got a mini-bike when I was 14,” said The Bird.

In his 29 starts, the Tigers drew an average of 31,077 fans per game – about 20,000 more than they drew in other games. His newfound fame created all kinds of unusual offers and opportunities. The Michigan State Legislature made a resolution, recommending a pay-raise for Fidrych. He met President Gerald Ford and entertainers Frank Sinatra and Elton John. He was offered a basketball scholarship by the University of Detroit’s Dick Vitale. Fidrych made commercials, and was talked about as a potential movie star. A Detroit disk jockey led a movement to change the state bird from a robin to a Fidrych.

Nevertheless, The Bird realized that fame can be fleeting. “This could burn out,” he said late in the season. “It’s like a bubble now – it’s still rising. But it could explode.”

Fidrych continued his outstanding mound-work in the second half of the season, and wound up with a 19-9 record for team that was otherwise 55-78. He completed 24 of his 29 starts, five of them extra-inning games, averaging 8.6 innings per start. He led the American League in complete games and ERA (2.34). He also excelled defensively, topping the league in assists (59), range factor, and total chances without an error (78). By modern measures, he is identified as the best overall pitcher in baseball in 1976 by Win Shares (27), Total Pitching Wins (4.4), and WAR (9.6).

Fidrych easily won the AL Rookie of the Year Award, finished second behind Jim Palmer in Cy Young Award balloting, and ranked 11^th in MVP voting. The Sporting News named him AL Rookie Pitcher of the Year. The New York chapter of the BBWAA gave Fidrych the Sid Mercer Award as “the baseball player of the year.” The Detroit chapter named him Tiger of the Year, and Detroit’s United Foundation tabbed him as Sportsman of the Year.

With help from his father, Fidrych negotiated a three-year contract which gave him a retroactive raise and bonus for 1976, and would pay him a reported $50,000 in 1977, $75,000 in ’78, and $100,000 in ’79. The salaries would pale in comparison with other stars and even non-stars of that era, but Fidrych wanted to make sure he reached four years of big league service to qualify for a pension.

Fidrych’s career path went off-course in spring training of 1977. On March 21, he was needlessly shagging fly balls in the outfield. He leapt for one ball and landed hard on his left leg. Ten days later, Fidrych underwent surgery to repair torn meniscus cartilage in his knee. But with the Tigers struggling for wins and fans, he was back on the mound just eight weeks later.

After dropping his first two decisions, Fidrych resumed his status as one of the best pitchers in the game. He reeled off six straight victories in June to enter July with a 6-2 record, seven complete games in eight starts, and a 1.83 ERA – similar to his record (8-1, 2.05) entering July ’76. The Bird was picked to the AL All-Star team for the second straight year. But the bubble was about to explode.

Pitching against Baltimore on July 4, Fidrych had a 2-0 lead in the sixth inning when his arm started “feeling weird,” and the O’s erupted for six runs. After two more aborted outings on July 8 and 12, Fidrych was shut down for the season. He was diagnosed with tendonitis, but in reality he had suffered a rotator cuff injury. No doubt the heavy workload at ages 21-22, and coming back too soon from knee surgery, were key factors.

Fidrych returned to become the Tigers’ opening day pitcher on April 7, 1978, and started the season with two complete-game wins. But he came out after just four innings in his third start on April 17, complaining of shoulder pain. He would not win another big league game for 28 months.

The rest of the Bird’s pitching in 1978 consisted of just 13 innings for the Lakeland Tigers. After a year of rehab, he attempted a comeback with Detroit in May, 1979, but was torched for a 10.43 ERA in in four starts before being shelved for another year. Doctors put Fidrych on a regimen of massage, manipulation, weight-lifting, and ice treatment which they hoped would get him back on the mound the following year.

Fidrych signed a $130,000 contract for 1980, but after being lit up in spring training, he was sent down to Evansville. He pitched creditably enough (3.12 ERA in 117 innings) to earn one last call to the majors. Fidrych struggled to a 5.68 ERA in nine games with Detroit. In his final outing, October 1, he was credited with an 11-7 victory against Toronto. His big league career was over at age 26.

Fidrych toiled for Evansville in 1981 (5.75 ERA in 83 innings) before being released by the Tigers on October 5. “It’s one of the most difficult things I’ve ever had to do,” said Tigers’ GM Jim Campbell. Signed by the Red Sox as a free agent on February 25, 1982, Fidrych joined the AAA Pawtucket club, where he fared no better. After going 6-8 with a 4.98 ERA in 1982 and 2-5, 9.68 the following season, Fidrych retired from baseball on June 29, 1983. By the time his torn rotator cuff was diagnosed and operated on two years later, he felt it was too late for another baseball comeback attempt.

Fidrych married waitress Ann Patanzis in 1986, and they had a daughter, Jessica, the following year. Mark adored them both. With the money he made in baseball, he had bought a 123-acre farm in Northborough, and later a ten-wheel dump truck, which he used for hauling asphalt and gravel for local firms. He expressed no regret at the way his baseball career turned out, only gratitude at having enjoyed some success at the top, paving the way for a contented post-baseball career. He was happy that people remembered him, and refused to charge for his autograph.

Like so many of the players featured in this book, Fidrych’s story had a tragic ending. On April 13, 2009, he was found dead under his truck on his property. Authorities said that he was working on the truck when his clothes became entangled in its spinning power takeoff shaft, strangling him. Mark Fidrych was 54.

Praising the McCovey Bio Would Be a Stretch

Posted on April 2, 2026 by billdeane14

As a big Willie “Stretch” McCovey fan, I was excited to learn that he would finally get a biographical treatment. But I was disappointed in the result.

A Giant Among Giants: The Baseball Life of Willie McCovey was authored by MLB journalist Chris Haft, and published by the University of Nebraska Press in late 2024. The tip-off that this is not a true biography is in the subtitle. Only three pages are devoted to the first 17 years of McCovey’s life, before he became a pro ballplayer. And there is precious little about his personal life thereafter. For example, though Willie’s daughter Allison is quoted several times, there is no mention of when she was born or who her mother was.

The hard-cover book has only 184 pages of text, including a superfluous 14-page chapter on the winners of Willie Mac Award. It is heavy on statistics, particularly ones which didn’t exist during McCovey’s career, such as WAR and OPS. There is also a photo section containing 33 black & white pictures, some oddly-formatted statistical appendices (no decimal points in averages), some source notes, and an index.

Like most baseball books, this one has many factual errors. In trying to put historical perspective on McCovey’s reaching 500 home runs, the author botches the facts. On page 113 he writes about the 1978 milestone, “Each slugger to have reached 500 homers was already enshrined in Cooperstown.” Not true: Eddie Mathews was still awaiting his induction, and Willie Mays, Harmon Killebrew, Henry Aaron, and Frank Robinson were not even eligible yet. Then, discussing the approaching 1986 Hall of Fame election on page 136, Haft states that “Being the twelfth player to exceed 500 career home runs seemed to improve McCovey’s Cooperstown chances, since the previous 11 hitters to gain access to this ‘club’ were all first-ballot selections for induction.” Wrong again: neither Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Mathews, nor Killebrew made it on their first tries, or even their second ones.

Some other bloopers:

On page 74, it says that Willie “Mays hit 29 doubles in 1966, exceeding his career high by one.” In fact, Mays had topped 28 doubles in seven previous seasons, with a high of 43.
On page 92, following the Giants’ 1971 trade of pitcher Gaylord Perry, it states that “Perry still had three 20-wins seasons and a Cy Young Award left in him.” Perry actually had two Cy Youngs to come, in 1972 and ’78, becoming the first to win it in each league.
On page 93, reporting McCovey’s 1972 broken arm, Haft calls it “a spinal fracture of the ulna.” I’m no doctor, but I don’t think you can get a spinal fracture in your arm; I’d guess he meant spiral fracture.
On page 160, it says that Dave Kingman “accumulated 442 home runs, hitting 30 or more 5 times in 16 seasons.” Kingman actually had 30+ in seven seasons.
The caption for photo #20 gives McCovey’s Hall of Fame induction date as “August 3, 1980” instead of the correct year, 1986.
On page 186, McCovey’s 1959 statistical line for Phoenix is mixed up with some of his stats from San Francisco that year. As a result, it shows Willie getting 130 hits in just 192 at bats.

All in all, the book is a decent read, but it left me wanting more. It’s like a little plate of cookies when you’re hoping for a steak dinner. I give it a six out of ten.

A 2026 Baseball Season Forecast

Posted on March 9, 2026 by billdeane14

Here it is: my long-unawaited 2026 baseball season forecast!

I’ve been doing this since 1972, and in this space for the past decade. Like most prognosticators, sometimes, I do well, other times, not so much. Last year was about average: I picked three of the six division winners, and 12 of the 30 teams in the correct spots (including the entire NL Central).

Without further ado:

NL East – The Phillies repeat, just ahead of NL MVP Juan Soto and the Mets (wild card). The Braves, Marlins, and Nationals round out the division.

NL Central – The Cubs turn the tables on the Brewers (wild card) to emerge in first place, followed by the Reds, Cardinals, and Pirates (hurt by Paul Skenes’s IL stint).

NL West – The Dodger$ can’t help but win again, easily outdistancing the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks. The Rockies, though slightly better than ’25, again have baseball’s worst record.

AL East – Helped by a big year from Cody Bellinger, the Yankees overcome injuries and setbacks to rise to the top. Behind them are the Red Sox (wild card), Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles.

AL Central – In a tight division, the Tigers edge the Royals, Guardians, White Sox, and Twins.

AL West – Corey Seager and the Rangers range past the Mariners (wild card, despite Cal Raleigh’s dip from 60 homers to 40) and Astros. The homeless Athletics and hopeless Angels bring up the rear.

Post-season – The Dodgers beat the Cubs to return to the World Series, and the Yankees vanquish the Rangers to join L.A. there for the 12^th time, but the first since 1981. And, yawn, the Dodgers win it all again.

And one random prediction: a huge star, seemingly destined for Cooperstown, will be suspended for PED use.

Musing about the Museum Vote

Posted on January 22, 2026 by billdeane14

Some thoughts about the recent Baseball Hall of Fame vote:

My forecast of the election, published here on November 2 (before the ballots went out or the tracking started), turned out pretty well. I predicted that two players would be elected: Carlos Beltran with 80% of the vote, and Andruw Jones with 78%. Two players were elected: Beltran with 84% of the vote, and Jones with 78%. Most of my other predicted percentages were in the ballpark, too, with my biggest miss on Andy Pettitte: I guessed 31%, he got 48 – more on him later.

* * * * *

Like a lot of Hall of Famers and stars who played over the past 40 years (Cal Ripken, Kirby Puckett, Frank Thomas, Tony Gwynn, Barry Bonds, Ivan Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter, to name a few), new honorees Beltran and Jones are as bald as cue balls. Yet older honorees like Ted Simmons and Dennis Eckersley still have flowing manes of hair. Why is that?

Here’s one possible explanation: “Steroids can both accelerate male pattern baldness and cause it in people who aren’t genetically predisposed to the condition.”

I’m not saying every bald athlete took steroids (nor that everyone who took steroids is bald). I’m just noticing a “pattern.”

And, while the writers snub the likes of Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, and Manny Ramirez for alleged PED-use, how many juicers with lesser credentials have they already voted in?

* * * * *

Writers, allowed to vote for up to ten players apiece, named an average of just 5.77 per ballot in 2026, down 15% from last year, and the lowest since 2012. Only 20.9% of voters used all ten slots (down from 24.9% in ’25), and 11 writers submitted blank ballots.

* * * * *

Jones, born in 1977, became the third Hall of Famer to share my April 23 birthday, joining Jim Bottomley (1900) and Warren Spahn (1921). I believe the only birthday to boast more Hall of Famers is April 2, which has Hughie Jennings (1869), Luke Appling (1907), umpire Al Barlick (1915), and Don Sutton (1945).

* * * * *

Andy Pettitte, an admitted PED-user, is enjoying a sudden surge in voting. He languished between 10-17% of the vote in his first six tries, but leaped to 28% in 2025 and 48% this year. It is probably too late to reach the magical 75% needed for election, as he has just two more tries via the BBWAA ballot, and the last one will be with Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Robinson Cano joining the fray.

* * * * *

Andruw Jones was elected despite having received just 7% (31 out of 422) of the vote in his first try in 2018 – just ten votes fewer, and he would have been eliminated from the ballot! According to a graphic shown on the MLB Network, over the past 60 years, these are the four lowest percentages received in a first try by players who were ultimately elected by the BBWAA:

Player Year Pct.

Andruw Jones 2018 7.3

Scott Rolen 2018 10.2

Billy Wagner 2016 10.5

Todd Helton 2019 16.5

All of them came on the ballot over a four-year period starting ten years ago, and all have been elected in the past four years. I believe much of that – particularly in the cases of Jones and Rolen – is the culmination of a trend among voters over the past decade. The writers were entrusted with Hall of Fame voting 90 years ago because they had seen the players day-in and day-out, presumably making them best-equipped to evaluate candidates’ “playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played” (the qualities which, in addition to records, are to be considered for election). But writers increasingly vote more based on what WAR tells them, which is why players like Jones, Rolen, and Beltran (and soon Chase Utley) are being elected despite having had minimal support in MVP voting by these same writers throughout their careers.

If that’s the case, why have voters?

* * * * *

Felix Hernandez got a resounding 46% of the vote in his second try, indicating he is on track to get elected in the near future. Cole Hamels made a strong showing out of the gate, getting 24 %.

Personally, I wouldn’t vote for either one of them. Both were very good pitchers, but the Hall of Fame is supposed to be for the best of the best, not the very good. That being said, I can’t understand why someone would vote for Hernandez but not Hamels. Here’s a comparison between the two from Stathead on baseball-reference.com:

To summarize, they pitched almost an identical number of starts and innings and are close in most other counting numbers: Hernandez was 169-136 with a 3.42 ERA and 2524 strikeouts; Hamels was 163-122, 3.43, 2560. In analytical measures, Cole comes out better than Felix: 123 to 117 in ERA+, and 59-50 in WAR. I know it was the first try for Hamels and the second for Hernandez, but why should that matter?

Hall of Famers Who Never Saw the Light

Posted on January 3, 2026 by billdeane14

Babe Ruth played his final major league game on May 30, 1935, just six days after MLB’s first night game at Cincinnati’s Crosley Field; the Babe never played an official game under the lights. Someone recently wrote to Baseball Digest asking, “does that mean that Ruth… was the final Hall of Famer to play his entire career in the daytime?” As a copy editor for BD, I sometimes get tasked with helping to answer questions like this.

It didn’t take me long to find players who retired later than Ruth without ever having played a night game, including his long-time teammate Lou Gehrig (night baseball didn’t reach the American League until 1939, by which time Lou’s playing career had ended). But it begged the question, who was the last to do so?

First, some illumination on night baseball. The first night game was played more than a half-century before the Reds introduced it to the majors. At Nantasket Beach, Massachusetts on September 2, 1880, two amateur teams played a game under a crude lighting system. Thirty-six carbon arc lamps were propped on three 100-foot towers surrounding a field, and placed in communication with a dynamo-electric generator, operated by a 30-horsepower engine. But the lighting left a lot to be desired. There were numerous fielding errors in the game, and the 300 spectators were able to discern little other than the pitchers’ movements. The game was called at 9:30 PM in a 16-16 tie.

Experiments continued and systems improved. On June 19, 1909, two Elks lodge teams played a game at Cincinnati’s Palace of the Fans under the electric light system invented and installed by George F. Cahill. On August 27, 1910, Cahill’s lighting system was used at Comiskey Park for a game between two Chicago City League teams, making “the diamond as bright as midday.” Brooklyn’s Federal League team scheduled a night game for late in the 1915 season, but the game was cancelled and the rival major league folded soon after. There were Negro and minor league contests and other major league exhibition games played at night long before 1935. Even after the Crosley Field event, it took a while for night baseball to take hold in the majors. The Reds played only a handful of night games annually for the first few seasons, and it was three years before the Brooklyn Dodgers became the second team to install lights. Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago’s Comiskey Park followed in ’39, and by 1948, every big league park except Chicago’s Wrigley Field had lights and night games. (Lights were inside that park, ready for installation, when Pearl Harbor was attacked; Cubs’ owner Phil Wrigley donated the lights to the war effort the next day, and Wrigley Field remained unlit until 1988.)

Back to our question, the Elias Sports Bureau provided a list of Hall of Famers who finished their careers between 1935 and ’45 (though, as it turned out, there were other qualifiers who played later than that). Baseball-Reference.com has splits which include performance in night games, thereby revealing whether or not someone played in one. (They do not have this information for Negro league players; however, those leagues played night games earlier and more often than the white majors, so I doubt they would provide any additions to the list.)

A couple of Hall of Famers barely experienced night baseball: Heinie Manush and Jesse Haines appeared in just one such game each, both partial contests at Crosley Field in 1937. Manush pinch-hit and played the last two innings on August 6, and Haines pitched two-thirds of an inning in his next-to-last major league appearance on September 3.

Without further preamble, as best as I can determine, there were 17 Hall of Fame players who finished their MLB careers after the first major league night game, but never played in one. And the last one was my “namesake”:

PLAYER	FINAL GAME
Babe Ruth	May 30, 1935
Dazzy Vance	August 14, 1935
Earle Combs	September 29, 1935
Rabbit Maranville	September 29, 1935
Fred Lindstrom	May 15, 1936
Bill Terry	September 22, 1936
Travis Jackson	September 24, 1936
Mickey Cochrane	May 25, 1937
Rogers Hornsby	July 20, 1937
Pie Traynor	August 14, 1937
Waite Hoyt	May 15, 1938
Goose Goslin	September 25, 1938
Lou Gehrig	April 30, 1939
Tony Lazzeri	June 7, 1939
Lefty Grove	September 28, 1941
Ted Lyons	May 19, 1946
Dizzy Dean	September 28, 1947

Lyons had become strictly a Sunday pitcher by 1942, and had spent 1943-45 in military service before returning for his final five games at age 45 in 1946. And Dean was a broadcaster who hadn’t appeared in a game since 1941, before he signed a one-day contract to pitch for the St. Louis Browns as a gate attraction in the season finale.

Deane Ball 2025

Posted on December 15, 2025December 15, 2025 by billdeane14

Inspired by late SABR founder Bob Davids’s “Baseball Briefs,” since the 1980s I have put together an annual compendium of oddball stats and feats from the previous baseball season. Here is the 2025 version:

The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw could have become the first pitcher (minimum 200 wins) to finish with a .700 career win percentage, had he gone 2-0 in the final ten days of the season. However, his manager sabotaged that chance. On September 19, Dave Roberts pulled Kershaw after he struck out the leadoff batter in the fifth inning; the Dodgers scored four in the bottom of the inning and went on to beat the Giants, 6-3, but Clayton (4.1 innings, two runs, six K’s) was two outs shy of qualifying for the victory. Five days later, Kershaw pitched a perfect ninth inning in a tie game vs. Arizona, but was removed before the Dodgers won in the 11^th, 5-4. In his final regular-season start on September 28, Kershaw hurled 5.1 scoreless innings to earn a 6-1 win over the Mariners. He finished his career 223-96, good for a .698 percentage.

The Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber (.240) and the Mariners’ Cal Raleigh (.247) posted two of the five lowest batting averages ever for a league RBI champion:

LOWEST BATTING AVERAGES BY RBI CHAMPIONS, 1876-2025

AVG Player, TEAM (LEA.) YEAR RBI

.228 Adam Duvall, MIA-ATL (N) 2021 113

.240 Kyle Schwarber, PHI (N) 2025 132

.243 Harmon Killebrew, MIN (A) 1962 126

.244 Cecil Fielder, DET (A) 1992 124

.247 Cal Raleigh, SEA (A) 2025 125

.251 Ryan Howard, PHI (N) 2008 146

.254 Harmon Killebrew, MIN (A) 1971 119

.255 Jim Nealon, PIT (N) 1906 83

.258 Lee May, BAL (A) 1976 109

.259 Howard Johnson, NY (N) 1991 117

The National League’s unlikely co-leaders in stolen bases were the Pirates’ Oneil Cruz and the Mets’ Juan Soto, with 38 apiece. Cruz, who batted a paltry .200 (actually, .1996), had only 35 steals in parts of four previous seasons, while Soto had never had more than 12 thefts in any of his seven prior seasons. In the AL, Kansas City’s rookie pinch-running specialist Tyler Tolbert managed 21 stolen bases despite just 50 at bats.

Seattle’s Cal Raleigh had 38 home runs at the 2025 All-Star break, second only to Barry Bonds’s 39 in 2001. Raleigh was one of five players who had 30+ at the break in ’25, joining the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (35), Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani (32), D’backs’ Eugenio Suarez (31), and Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber (30).

MOST HOME RUNS AT ALL-STAR BREAK, 1933-2025

Player, CLUB (LEA.) Date HR

Barry Bonds, SF (NL) 7/10/01 39

Cal Raleigh, SEA (AL) 7/15/25 38

Reggie Jackson, OAK (AL) 7/23/69 37

Mark McGwire, SL (NL) 7/ 7/98 37

Chris Davis, BAL (AL) 7/16/13 37

Ken Griffey, Jr., SEA (AL) 7/ 7/98 35

Luis Gonzalez, AZ (NL) 7/10/01 35

Aaron Judge, NY (AL) 7/15/25 35

Frank Howard, WAS (AL) 7/23/69 34

Aaron Judge, NY (AL) 7/16/24 34

The AL champion Toronto Blue Jays finished 94-68, moving to within one win of an even .500 overall for their 49 seasons. The Jays are now 3855-3856 (.49994), plus three ties, since debuting in 1977.
Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer remain among the 24 men with 100+ more wins than losses at the modern pitching distance:

PITCHERS WITH 100 MORE WINS THAN LOSSES, 1893-2025

Pitcher W L DIFF.

Christy Mathewson 373 188 185

Roger Clemens 354 184 170

Grover Alexander 373 208 165

Cy Young 439 275 164

Lefty Grove 300 141 159

Walter Johnson 416 279 137

Randy Johnson 303 166 137

Eddie Plank 327 193 134

Whitey Ford 236 106 130

Greg Maddux 355 227 128

Clayton Kershaw 223 96 127

Pedro Martinez 219 100 119

Warren Spahn 363 245 118

Mike Mussina 270 153 117

Jim Palmer 268 152 116

Kid Nichols 269 156 113

Justin Verlander 266 158 108

Tom Seaver 311 205 106

Max Scherzer 221 117 104

Bob Feller 266 162 104

Andy Pettitte 256 153 103

Joe McGinnity 247 144 103

Tom Glavine 305 203 102

Juan Marichal 243 142 101

Note: Young was 72-41 and Nichols was 92-52 before 1893.

The Yankees’ Aaron Judge hit 53 home runs to give him 368 in his ten-year career, despite just 1145 games. Only three players ever hit more in their first ten seasons – two of them just barely. With 280 in eight seasons, the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani figures to join and climb up this list in the next two years:

MOST HOME RUNS, FIRST TEN SEASONS, 1876-2024

Player HR

Albert Pujols 408

Eddie Mathews 370

Ralph Kiner 369

Aaron Judge 368

Adam Dunn 354

Ken Griffey, Jr. 350

Alex Rodriguez 345

Hank Aaron 342

Mark Teixeira 338

Ernie Banks 335

Frank Robinson 324

Ted Williams 323

Albert Belle 321

Miguel Cabrera 321

Mickey Mantle 320

Willie Mays 319

Mike Schmidt 314

Ryan Howard 311

Jeff Bagwell 310

Manny Ramirez 310

What George Orwell called “groupthink” has taken over voting for the major baseball awards. Unanimous selection for the MVP used to be a once- or twice-per-decade phenomenon, and one would think it would be even rarer with 30 voters in each league. Yet five of the last six MVP Awards (and five of the last eight Cy Young Awards) have resulted in unanimous selections – including Shohei Ohtani, who became the first man to win two and then three and four unanimous MVPs. In the past three seasons, for the first three times ever, there were even three unanimous second-place finishers. The Dodgers’ Mookie Betts received all 30 second-place votes for the NL MVP in 2023, the Royals’ Bobby Witt, Jr. did the same for the AL honor in ’24, and the Phillies’ Cristopher Sanchez got all 30 seconds for the NL Cy Young in ’25. To paraphrase an old saying, if 30 people agree on everything, then 29 of them are unnecessary.

With a .2996 career average, the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman is clinging to his status as the only active member of the 300/.300 Club:

300 HOMERS & .300 AVERAGE, 1876-2025

Player HR AVG

Hank Aaron 755 .305

Babe Ruth 714 .342

Willie Mays 660 .302

Manny Ramirez 555 .312

Jimmie Foxx 534 .325

Ted Williams 521 .344

Frank Thomas 521 .301

Mel Ott 511 .304

Miguel Cabrera 511 .306

Lou Gehrig 493 .340

Stan Musial 475 .331

Chipper Jones 468 .303

Vlad. Guerrero 449 .318

Mike Piazza 427 .308

Larry Walker 383 .313

Todd Helton 369 .316

Freddie Freeman 367 .300

Joe DiMaggio 361 .325

Johnny Mize 359 .312

Robinson Cano 335 .301

Moises Alou 332 .304

Hank Greenberg 331 .313

George Brett 317 .305

Edgar Martinez 309 .312

Al Simmons 307 .334

Rogers Hornsby 301 .358

Chuck Klein 300 .320

Injuries cost the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi most of June and all of September, but in between he posted a minuscule 1.73 ERA and a sterling 11-3 record over 130 innings (not to mention leading AL pitchers with 23 putouts). Yet he didn’t receive a single mention in Cy Young Award voting, presumably because he didn’t pitch enough innings – though vote-getters Trevor Rogers (110) and Aroldis Chapman (61) had fewer. Here’s a question for the voters: suppose Eovaldi had pitched another 55 innings, but gone 1-6 with a 4.07 ERA over that time – would that have made him a more viable candidate? Apparently so, because it would have given him numbers identical to Houston’s Hunter Brown, who finished third in the balloting.

Jose Ramirez is rarely mentioned when discussing today’s top players or future Hall of Famers. Yet the Guardians’ star has now finished in the top ten in AL MVP voting in eight of the past nine seasons, missing out in only the 2019 campaign. Ramirez’s finishes in the other seasons since 2017 are third, third, second, sixth, fourth, tenth, fifth, and third. His 3.61 MVP Award shares rank 26^th all-time, ahead of such luminaries as Reggie Jackson and Ken Griffey, Jr. – and the highest ever by anyone who never won the award.
The Dodgers Shohei Ohtani shattered the single-season record for most home runs as a leadoff batter. Ohtani hit 51 in his 148 games at the top of the batting order, ten more than Ronald Acuña’s total from two years ago. Ohtani’s 93 RBI as a first-up man rank tied for 11^th all-time. Following are the leaders in each category:

MOST HOME RUNS BY A LEADOFF BATTER, SEASON, 1876-2025

Player, CLUB (LEA.) YEAR G HR

Shohei Ohtani, LA (N) 2025 148 51

Ronald Acuña, ATL (NL) 2023 159 41

George Springer, HOU (AL) 2019 119 39

Alfonso Soriano, WAS (NL) 2006 131 39

Mookie Betts, LA (NL) 2023 151 39

Alfonso Soriano, NY (AL) 2002 150 38

Kyle Schwarber, PHI (NL) 2022 123 38

Kyle Schwarber, PHI (NL) 2024 149 38

Charlie Blackmon, COL (NL) 2017 156 37

Francisco Lindor, CLE (AL) 2018 153 37

Bobby Bonds, SF (NL) 1973 139 35

Brady Anderson, BAL (AL) 1996 102 35

Alfonso Soriano, NY (AL) 2003 142 35

Mookie Betts, LA (N) 2022 138 35

Shohei Ohtani, LA (N) 2024 90 35

MOST RBI BY A LEADOFF BATTER, SEASON, 1920-2025

Player, CLUB (LEA.) YEAR G RBI

Mookie Betts, LA (NL) 2023 151 107

Ronald Acuña, ATL (NL) 2023 159 106

Kyle Schwarber, PHI (NL) 2024 149 104

Charlie Blackmon, COL (NL) 2017 156 103

Darin Erstad, ANA (AL) 2000 156 100

Marcus Semien, TEX (AL) 2023 161 100

Alfonso Soriano, NY (AL) 2002 150 99

Nomar Garciaparra, BOS (AL) 1997 152 98

Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS (AL) 2011 144 97

George Springer, HOU (AL) 2019 119 96

Brian Dozier, MIN (AL) 2017 151 93

Shohei Ohtani, LA (NL) 2025 148 93

DJ LeMahieu, NY (AL) 2019 126 92

Johnny Damon, BOS (AL) 2004 143 91

Grady Sizemore, CLE (AL) 2008 157 90

Francisco Lindor, CLE (AL) 2018 153 90

Note: G, HR, and RBI figures are as a leadoff batter only.

For the second straight year, the Yankees’ Aaron Judge was named AL Player of the Month three times – in April, May, and September – giving him 12 such honors in his career. This enabled him to surpass Alex Rodriguez, who had held the AL record with ten POM awards. Judge needs just one more to match Barry Bonds for the major league record (Roger Clemens has the most Pitcher of the Month Awards with 15). Judge has now earned the May POM Award in four straight seasons. Shall we dub him Mr. May?

The Elias Sports Bureau ranks the top pinch-hitters each year, based not on some minimum number of hits in that role, but on a minimum of 20 at bats. In 2025, they named the Cardinals’ Yohel Pozo as the NL’s top pinch-hitter, based on his .286 batting average and .524 slugging percentage (six hits and 11 total bases in 21 at bats). Meanwhile, the Braves’ Eli White went 8-for-17 (.467) with 14 total bases (.824) – but wasn’t listed among the leaders because he fell short of the 20-AB threshold. In other words, White had more hits and more total bases in fewer at bats than Pozo, but wasn’t considered the leader because he didn’t make enough outs in the pinch! Other players who had as many or more pinch-hits than Pozo in fewer ABs included the Phillies’ Brandon Marsh (8-for-16, .500) and Dominic Smith (6-for-8, .750).

The Mets’ Kodai Senga had a 1.39 ERA at the All-Star break, the ninth-best in history (minimum 75 innings pitched). Unfortunately, Senga limped in at 6.56 the rest of the year to finish at a modest 3.02:

LOWEST ERA AT ALL-STAR BREAK, 1933-2025 (Min. 75 IP)

Pitcher, CLUB (LEA.) YEAR ERA

Bob Gibson, SL (NL) 1968 1.06

Jacob deGrom, NY (NL) 2021 1.08

Bob Knepper, HOU (NL) 1981 1.15

Eddie Fisher, CHI (AL) 1965 1.24

Luis Tiant, CLE (AL) 1968 1.24

Don Drysdale, LA (NL) 1968 1.37

Nolan Ryan, HOU (NL) 1981 1.37

Zack Greinke, LA (NL) 2015 1.39

Kodai Senga, NY (NL) 2025 1.39

Dick Radatz, BOS (AL) 1963 1.42

Vida Blue, OAK (AL) 1971 1.42

Pedro Martinez, BOS (AL) 2000 1.44

Gaylord Perry, CLE (AL) 1974 1.48

Jim Kern, TEX (AL) 1979 1.48

Roger Clemens, HOU (NL) 2005 1.48

In the first 149 seasons of major league baseball, there were only two players with the surname Seymour: Jake Seymour, who pitched one game in 1882, and Cy Seymour, a star pitcher and outfielder from 1896-1913. But in 2025 there were three new Seymours in the bigs: Rays’ pitcher Ian, who debuted on June 9 and pitched in 19 games; Giants’ pitcher Carson, who first appeared on June 29 and hurled in 16 games; and Rays’ first baseman Bob, who debuted August 15 and played 26 games. Interestingly, all three were born in the fall of 1998.

On June 28, the Rangers’ Corey Seager connected vs. the Mariners to give him 200 home runs hit as a shortstop. As shown on the accompanying list, only nine other players had done so, including the Mets’ Francisco Lindor; Houston’s Carlos Correa (192) could join them in 2026:

PLAYERS WITH 200+ HOMERS WHILE PLAYING SHORTSTOP, 1876-2025

Player Total HR @ SS

Cal Ripken 431 345

Alex Rodriguez 696 344

Miguel Tejada 307 291

Ernie Banks 512 277

Francisco Lindor 279 271

Derek Jeter 260 255

Jimmy Rollins 231 229

Troy Tulowitzki 225 223

Vern Stephens 247 213

Corey Seager 221 212

Charlie Morton plunked 14 batters in his final season, giving him an even 200 career hit batsmen. That is the second-most since 1900, behind only Hall of Famer Walter Johnson (205), and surpassing Hall of Famers Randy Johnson and Eddie Plank (190 each).

The American League used pinch-hitters on more than 2,000 occasions, with an aggregate batting average of just .202. This, unfortunately, is fairly typical: in the seasons since 2008, AL pinch-swingers have hit .208, .206, .216, .207, .208, .208, .215, .196, .210, .208, .220, .205, .220, .218, .217, .209, and .202, respectively. Which raises my annual questions: Since pitchers do not bat, whom are these guys hitting for, which makes this such a brilliant strategy? And whose analytics are responsible for it?

Each of the past six world championship teams has had a Will Smith on the roster. Catcher Will Smith won World Series rings with the Dodgers in 2020, ’24, and ’25, while pitcher Will Smith (now retired) did so with the Braves (2021), Astros (2022), and Rangers (2023).
The Twins’ Matt Wallner and the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani had two of the three lowest single-season ratios of RBI-to-home runs ever:

LOWEST RATIO OF RBI:HOME RUNS, SEASON, 1876-2025 (Min. 20 HR)

Player YEAR HR RBI RATIO

Matt Wallner 2025 22 40 1.82

Byron Buxton 2022 28 51 1.82

Shohei Ohtani 2025 55 102 1.85

Matt Olson 2017 24 45 1.88

Barry Bonds 2001 73 137 1.88

Mike Zunino 2021 33 62 1.88

Joey Gallo 2023 21 40 1.90

Hunter Renfroe 2019 33 64 1.94

Joey Gallo 2017 41 80 1.95

Kevin Maas 1990 21 41 1.95

Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, starts with the theory that a team of “replacement players” would play .294 ball, or roughly a 48-114 record for a full season. Based on that, the Rockies could have released their entire team, called up minor leaguers to replace them, and finished with a better record than the 43-119 (.265) that they wound up with, not to mention saving millions in payroll! By the way, the media likes to say that the Rockies finished 76 games under .500. If so, how come they finished “only” 38 games behind the third-place, 81-81 Giants?

Almost all players see their career batting averages go down in their 30s. For extreme examples, Frank Thomas hit .327 in his 20s, .276 after his 30^th birthday; Albert Pujols batted .334 in his 20s, but just .266 after that. But the Yankees’ Aaron Judge is a striking exception so far. After batting .276 in his 20s, with a high of .287, Judge has hit .313 since his 30^th birthday on April 26, 2022, finishing second, third, and first in batting title races.

The Yankees’ Max Fried had a great season, including a major league-leading 19 wins and a Gold Glove Award, in part due to his control of the running game. Fried led all MLB pitchers with seven pickoffs, and baserunners had just six stolen bases in 11 tries in his 195 innings on the mound. Cleveland’s Logan Allen was another who stopped runners in their tracks; he had four pickoffs while runners were only 8-for-18 in steal attempts on his watch.

Eugenio Suarez hit 36 home runs in just 106 games for the Diamondbacks, managing to finish fifth in the NL. Following his July 31 trade to the Mariners, he added 13 homers in 53 AL games. The combined total matched his career high set with the Reds in 2019. Suarez thus joined Hall of Fame sluggers Lou Gehrig (1934 and ’36) and Harmon Killebrew (1964 and ’69) as players who twice hit 49 homers in a season but never reached 50.

Not counting Shohei Ohtani, only six pitchers batted in 2025, just two put a ball in play, and one got a hit. On March 30, Arizona’s Ryan Nelson pinch-hit for pitcher Justin Martinez in the eighth inning of a 7-6 game vs. the Cubs (the D’backs had lost their DH when Ketel Marte moved to second base in the seventh). Nelson came through with an RBI-single up the middle, then scored on a subsequent hit. Arizona’s eight-run inning gave them a 10-6 win, credited to Martinez. Nelson became the first pitcher since 2021, other than Ohtani, to get a hit.

The World Series record for most extra-base hits in a game is four, and for most walks in a game is five. Shohei Ohtani did both – in the same game! Ohtani had two home runs and two doubles for the Dodgers in Game Three of the 2025 World Series on October 27-28, before the Blue Jays issued five straight walks (four intentional, one practically so) in the 18-inning game.

Washington’s Jorge Lopez pitched just 24.2 innings with a wretched 6.57 ERA – yet posted a 6-0 won-lost record! Meanwhile, San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon pitched only 73.2 innings, but was credited with 13 wins, four off the NL lead.
Washington rookie Daylen Lile had just 91 games and 321 at bats, yet finished third in the NL with 11 triples – seven in the month of September.

Marlins’ rookie Robinson Piña was born November 26, 1998 – Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. He became the 43^rd major leaguer born on Thanksgiving, joining the likes of Hall of Famer Lefty Gomez (born 1908), and notables Mike Scioscia (1958) and Walt Weiss (1963). Even more rare are Leap Day babies, including Pepper Martin and Al Rosen – and Tampa Bay rookie Tristan Peters, born February 29, 2000.

The Elias Sports Bureau ranks the leaders in fewest at bats per home run in each league – but qualifiers must meet not some minimum number of homers, but 502 plate appearances (which don’t even figure in the calculation). Here are the top five they listed for each league:

NL PLAYER AB HR AB/HR AL PLAYER AB HR AB/HR

Kyle Schwarber, PHI 604 56 10.8 Cal Raleigh, SEA 596 60 9.9

Shohei Ohtani, LA 611 55 11.1 Aaron Judge, NY 541 53 10.2

Juan Soto, NY 577 43 13.4 Junior Caminero, TB 602 45 13.4

Michael Busch, CHI 524 34 15.4 Byron Buxton, MIN 488 35 13.9

Pete Alonso, NY 624 38 16.4 Jo Adell, LA 526 37 14.2

But not even qualifying for the lists were two players who finished fifth in each league in homers: Arizona’s Eugenio Suarez (36 HR in 387 AB, 10.7) and Oakland’s Nick Kurtz (36 HR in 420 AB, 11.7). Both had more homers in fewer at bats than some players listed in the top five, but didn’t pass the Elias test. Kurtz was also cheated out of finishing second in the AL in slugging (.619) because he fell 13 plate appearances shy of the 502 required.

Current and recent pitchers continue to dominate the list of best career strikeout-to-walk ratios. When Dennis Eckersley retired in 1998, he was the all-time leader in this category at 3.25; he now ranks 18^th! Jacob deGrom, with 1851 K’s and a 5.37 ratio, could join and take over the leadership of this list in 2026. The top ten:

PITCHERS WITH BEST STRIKEOUT:WALK RATIOS, 1876-2025 (Min. 2000 SO)

Pitcher SO BB RATIO

Chris Sale 2579 487 5.30

Gerrit Cole 2251 500 4.50

Max Scherzer 3489 779 4.48

Curt Schilling 3116 711 4.38

Clayton Kershaw 3052 713 4.28

Pedro Martinez 3154 760 4.15

Dan Haren 2013 500 4.03

Zack Greinke 2979 762 3.91

Madison Bumgarner 2070 544 3.81

David Price 2076 562 3.69

Researcher Neil Munro notes that the Blue Jays’ George Springer reached base on defensive interference seven times in 2025, giving him 23 such instances in his career. That ranks third all-time, behind only Jacoby Ellsbury (31) and Pete Rose (29). Other active players climbing up the leader-board include Paul Goldschmidt (4^th, 22), Jorge Soler (T-6^th, 18), and Kyle Tucker (T-9^th, 17).

Rookie of the Year voting expanded from three spots per ballot to five in 2025, increasing the number of candidates being recognized. As a result, Milwaukee became the first team ever to land four players in one year’s ROY voting: third baseman Caleb Durbin (3^rd), left fielder Isaac Collins (4^th), and pitchers Chad Patrick (7^th) and Jacob Misiorowski (T-11^th).

After happening just 16 times in the first century-and-a-half of major league baseball, a record three players hit four home runs in a game in 2025: A’s rookie Nick Kurtz (July 25), the youngest ever at age 22; and the Diamondbacks’ Eugenio Suarez (April 26, at age 33) and the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber (August 28, 32), the two oldest ever.

Rafael Devers became the first man to play 163 games in a season since Minnesota’s Justin Morneau did so in 2008 (the Twins played an unscheduled tie-breaker against the White Sox on September 30 of that year). Devers appeared in all 73 Red Sox’ games before a June 15 trade to the Giants, who had played one fewer game at that point; Devers then played all 90 remaining games for San Francisco.

The Tigers’ Manuel Margot had just one pinch-hitting appearance in 2025; he struck out looking on March 28. Since singling in that role on June 20, 2023, Margot now has zero hits in his last 36 at bats in the pinch, including 0-for-30 in 2024.

The Dodgers’ Blake Snell was lights-out to begin the 2025 post-season. On September 30, he gave up two runs in seven innings to beat the Reds in the Wild Card series; on October 6, Snell pitched six shutout frames to beat the Phillies in the NLDS; and on October 13, he tossed eight shutout innings to top the Brewers in the NLCS. Prior to those gems, Snell held a dubious record: most post-season starts (10) without a quality start (6+ innings with three or fewer earned runs allowed). That record is now held by Jake Peavy with nine; the Phillies’ Ranger Suarez is tied for second with eight.

To add to his list of unique accomplishments, the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani became the first player to finish a season with exactly 55 home runs. That is the lowest “new” home run total since Baltimore’s Chris Davis hit 53 in 2013; now, every single-season total from 0 to 66 has been accomplished.

Though he caught only 73 games for Miami, rookie Agustin Ramirez was charged with 19 passed balls. No other NL catcher had more than eight. Ramirez also topped NL catchers with ten errors.

Only 13 MLB (8 AL, 5 NL) pitchers had a complete-game shutout in 2025, and none had more than one (Bob Gibson had 13 by himself in 1968; Orel Hershiser had five by himself in the month of September, 1988). Among the 13 co-leaders were Erick Fedde, who was 4-13 with a 5.49 ERA for three teams, and San Diego’s Michael King, who pitched just 73 innings. And for the first time since 2005, there was not a single no-hitter, not even a combined version.

San Diego’s Luis Arraez authored two of the NL’s four longest hitting streaks in 2025. Arraez hit in 16 straight games, July 18-August 3, and 15 straight, September 10-27. Only Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio (20) had a longer streak; San Francisco’s Dominic Smith also hit in 15 straight.

Cleveland rookie pitcher Parker Messick is still awaiting his first successful fielding opportunity in the majors. In 39.2 innings, Messick had only two fielding chances, both on September 19 against the Twins, and botched them both. In the fourth inning, he had Royce Lewis picked off first base, but threw the ball away, allowing Lewis to second. In the sixth frame, Messick fielded Austin Martin’s dribbler, but again threw the ball away, with Martin going to second on an infield hit and error.

Paul Goldschmidt might have contended for the AL batting title, if he played anywhere other than Yankee Stadium. Goldy batted .322 (83-for-258) in road games, but just .221 (51-for-231) at home.

Stump your friends by asking them to name the Dodgers’ staff #3 winner of 2025. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the team leader in wins with a modest 12-8 record; second was the retiring Clayton Kershaw at 11-2. And third was the immortal Ben Casparius, 7-6 with a 4.64 ERA. No world championship team has ever had a staff leader with fewer than 12 wins, let alone a #3-man with 7; the 2023 Rangers were led by Nathan Eovaldi (12-5) and Dane Dunning (12-7), but had two others in double-figures.

Ten AL players hit a dozen or more home runs in the DH role in 2025 – and three of them were Yankees. Aaron Judge (20), Giancarlo Stanton (15), and Ben Rice (13) combined for 48 homers as DHs.

The Milwaukee Brewers have now played more games as a National League team than they did as an American League club. John Rickert notes that the Brewers played 2199 home games in the AL, 1970-97, and played their 2200^th NL home game on August 22, 2025.

Mets’ pitcher Nolan McLean received two points in NL Rookie of the Year voting without losing his rookie status for 2026. McLean pitched just 48 innings, going 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA; the definition of “rookie” includes no more than 50 previous major league innings. If McLean can get mention in the 2026 balloting, he will join Gregg Jefferies (1988-89), Ryan Mountcastle (2020-21), and Ian Anderson (2020-21) as the only men to get Rookie of the Year votes in more than one election.

No grand slam home runs were hit by a Missouri team in 2025. Of the 30 major league clubs, the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals were the only two who failed to hit a slam.

Only three AL pitchers had longer win streaks than the Yankees’ Max Fried’s seven in 2025 – and Fried did it twice. Fried won his first seven straight decisions from April 4-May 24, and his last seven straight from August 16-September 24.

A 2026 Hall of Fame Election Forecast

Posted on November 2, 2025 by billdeane14

Now that the World Series is over, it’s time for my annual Hall of Fame election forecast. This is my 45^th straight year predicting the elections, and I hold an 80% success rate (72-18) in guessing who will or will not make it, among candidates receiving between 65-85% of the vote.

First, a review of the voting process: Members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) do the voting. Late each fall (November 17 this year), ballots are distributed to beat-writers who have been BBWAA members for ten years or more, and are either active or retired no more than ten years. The ballots, which are to be returned by the end of the year, list candidates in alphabetical order, instructing voters to choose up to ten players (the recent average is six to seven). Eligible candidates include men who played in at least ten seasons in the majors, the last of which was not less than five nor more than 15 years prior to the election. Any candidate being named on at least 75% of the ballots is elected to the Hall; anyone receiving less than 5% of the vote is dropped from further consideration. The BBWAA honors an average of about two players per year. The 2025 results will be announced on January 20, and the induction ceremony is scheduled for July 26.

Nearly half of the players – 13 of 28 – who were listed on the 2025 ballot are not on the 2026 version. They are Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner, who were elected; and ten men who were dropped for failing to reach the 5%-threshold: Ian Kinsler, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Troy Tulowitzki, Curtis Granderson, Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, and Ben Zobrist. These men collected a total of 1,098 votes in 2025, which theoretically could be redistributed to others on the ballot. Members of the 2026 rookie class will not attract many of those “freed-up” votes, meaning the 15 returning candidates will have a golden opportunity to move up this year – two of them enough to surpass the 75% plateau.

As usual, most first-time eligibles – including some good, solid players – seem destined for just one try on the writers’ ballot, the consequence of receiving less than 5% of the vote. These include Nick Markakis (2388 hits, 514 doubles, .288 average), Edwin Encarnacion (424 homers, .260), Rick Porcello (150-125 record, Cy Young Award), Sin-Shoo Choo (218 HR, .275), Alex Gordon (190 HR, .257), Matt Kemp (287 HR, .284), Howie Kendrick 127 HR, .294), Daniel Murphy (138 HR, .296), Hunter Pence (244 HR, .279), Neil Walker (149 HR, .267), and Gio Gonzalez (113-101 record), some of whom will not even pass the screening committee to make the ballot. But two newbies should surpass 5%, keeping them on for another year or nine.

The story of this year’s election is the culmination of a trend: voters rely more and more on what WAR tells them than what they observed, and certain players seemingly got better after they retired. Guys the writers practically ignored in MVP voting a decade or two ago, are now treated like immortals.

Here are those I expect to make the cut, with predicted percentages in parentheses:

Carlos Beltran (80) – Beltran totaled 2725 hits, 435 homers, a 312-49 stolen base record (plus some stolen signs), and three Gold Gloves in center field. Though he finished better than 20^th in MVP balloting just twice, those same voters suddenly see his value now. He’ll make it on his fourth try.

Andruw Jones (78) – Jones hit 434 homers and won ten Gold Gloves in center field. The writers just once voted him higher than eighth in MVP voting, and gave him only 7% of the Hall of Fame vote in his first try in 2018. But Jones was up to 66% by 2025, and will now join the all-time greats.

Chase Utley (50) – Utley is yet another of those players whom the writers pretty much ignored throughout his career (highest MVP finish: seventh), but who now provides a trendy vote for many (29% in his first try in ’24, 40% in ’25). Utley had 259 homers and a .275 average.

Alex Rodriguez (39) – In his fourth try, A-Rod’s ranking 16^th all-time in WAR will not be good enough to get him close to the Hall. His PED use overshadows his all-time-great accomplishments, including 696 home runs, 2086 RBI, 329 stolen bases, two Gold Gloves, and three MVP Awards.

Manny Ramirez (37) – His quirky behavior and PED busts obscured the fact that Ramirez was one of the best sluggers in major league history (.585 lifetime). He led the AL in homers, RBI, and batting in various years, and his 165 ribbies in 1999 are the most in a season by anyone since 1938. And he hit 29 post-season home runs, more than anyone else in history. Manny finished with 555 regular-season homers and a .312 career average. The only man to top him in both categories? Babe Ruth. This is Ramirez’s final try on the writers’ ballot.

Felix Hernandez (33) – A sophomore on the ballot, Hernandez posted a 169-136 record with 2524 strikeouts, two ERA crowns, and the 2010 AL Cy Young Award.

Andy Pettitte (31) – Pettitte posted a 256-153 career mark (making him one of just 24 pitchers since 1893 who were 100+ wins above .500), adding a record 19 post-season victories. His admitted PED-use costs him more-serious consideration, though he made a significant jump in ’25.

Bobby Abreu (23) – A Sabermetric stud, Abreu amassed 2470 hits, 574 doubles, 288 homers, 400 steals, and a .291/.395/.475 slash-line. Like the numbers of several Hall of Famers, Abreu’s declined noticeably around the time PED-testing began.

Jimmy Rollins (22) – Rollins had 2495 hits, 470 stolen bases, four Gold Gloves, and the 2007 NL MVP Award.

Omar Vizquel (19) – Vizquel (2877 hits, 11 Gold Gloves) got more than half of the writers’ vote in 2020, shocking for a player who received a total of three MVP points in his entire career. But accusations of domestic abuse and sexual harassment have caused him to drop precipitously since then.

Cole Hamels (17) – A ballot rookie, Hamels went 163-122 with 2560 strikeouts, and the 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP Awards. He’ll do better in voting for the Hall of Fame than he did for the Cy Young Award (best finish: fifth).

Dustin Pedroia (17) – A second-year candidate, Pedroia batted .299 lifetime and won the AL Rookie of the Year (2007) and MVP (2008) Awards, plus four Gold Gloves at second base.

Mark Buehrle (13) –Buehrle was a workhorse with a 214-160 log, including two no-hitters, one a perfect game. He also won four Gold Gloves.

David Wright (12) – By age 27, Wright had earned five straight All-Star selections (more than Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre had in his whole career), two Silver Slugger Awards, and two Gold Gloves at third base. But a broken back the next season led to chronic spinal stenosis. Wright returned to have a couple more All-Star seasons, but wound up playing only 77 games after his 32^nd birthday, walking out on a lucrative contract, and finishing with 242 homers and a .296 average. This is his third year on the ballot.

Francisco Rodriguez (11) – Rodriguez ranks fourth all-time with 437 saves (including a record 62 in 2008), and posted a 2.86 ERA over 976 innings.

Ryan Braun (9) – A freshman on the ballot, Braun batted .296 with 352 homers, winning Rookie of the Year and MVP Awards before a failed PED-test.

Torii Hunter (8) –Hunter totaled 2452 hits, 353 homers, and nine Gold Glove Awards in center field.

Looking ahead at notable newcomers in upcoming elections, next year will provide another opportunity for holdovers to move up: the biggest new names on the 2027 ballot are Buster Posey and Jon Lester. The following year will feature Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Robinson Cano, David Price, and Stephen Strasburg. On a star-studded ’29 ballot, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Zack Greinke, Nelson Cruz, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Adam Wainwright, and Josh Donaldson will join the fray. Anthony Rizzo and Matt Carpenter will headline the 2030 ballot. And any ten-year veteran who played in 2025, but does not return next season – Clayton Kershaw, for one – will qualify for the 2031 slate.

Reviewing Rookie Recognition & Rules

Posted on October 26, 2025 by billdeane14

In a few weeks, we’ll learn which two men are honored as this year’s Rookies of the Year. The Braves’ Drake Baldwin and the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz are the likely choices.

Baseball’s Rookie of the Year (or Jackie Robinson) Award dates back to 1947. To qualify for it, a player cannot have amassed more than 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on a roster before September 1, of any previous season(s). These guidelines have been in effect for more than half-a-century, dating back to 1971. But the idea started many years before 1947, and the guidelines were quite different before ’71.

The etymology of the word “rookie” is uncertain. According to The New Dickson Baseball Dictionary, it apparently was first used in military slang, a corruption of the word “recruit.” Its earliest known use in baseball was in 1908.

The concept of naming baseball’s top rookies of each year dates back to at least 1931. Noted scribe Daniel M. Daniel began an annual Baseball Magazine feature for that purpose, generally making a selection at mid-season and another at the end of the year. His de facto definition of “rookie” was pretty loose, including not only first-year players, but also veterans who for some reason were not in the majors the previous season, or who had not made much impact in previous experience. For examples, his 1935 nominee, Frank Demaree, had played in 157 big league games in 1932-33 before spending ’34 in the Pacific Coast League; and his 1941 NL pick, Pete Reiser, had had 225 at bats in 1940. By those criteria, Willie Mays (1954), Vida Blue (1971), Cecil Fielder (1990), and Buster Posey (2021), among many others, would have been top-rookie candidates, some for the second time.

Following are Daniel’s final top-rookie choices for 1931-45:

1931 Pepper Martin, St. Louis (NL)

1932 Monty Weaver, Washington (AL)

1933 Pinky Higgins, Philadelphia (AL)

1934 Hal Trosky, Cleveland (AL)

1935 Frank Demaree, Chicago (NL)

1936 Stu Martin, St. Louis (NL) & Joe DiMaggio, New York (AL)

1937 Rudy York, Detroit (AL)

1938 Johnny VanderMeer, Cincinnati (NL)

1939 Ted Williams, Boston (AL)

1940 Pee Wee Reese, Brooklyn (NL)

1941 Pete Reiser, Brooklyn (NL) & Pat Mullin, Detroit (AL)

1942 Johnny Beazley, St. Louis (NL) & Hank Borowy, New York (AL)

1943 Bill Johnson, New York (AL)

1944 Bill Voiselle, New York (NL)

1945 Boo Ferriss, Boston (AL)

The Chicago chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) established the J. Louis Comiskey Memorial Award in 1940, annually recognizing the majors’ top rookie (initially defined as someone with fewer than 100 previous games or 125 innings pitched). This continued for seven years before going national and encompassing the entire BBWAA. The pre-1947 winners were:

1940 Lou Boudreau, Cleveland (AL)

1941 Pete Reiser, Brooklyn (NL)

1942 Johnny Beazley, St. Louis (NL)

1943 Bill Johnson, New York (AL)

1944 Bill Voiselle, New York (NL)

1945 Boo Ferriss, Boston (AL)

1946 Eddie Waitkus, Chicago (NL)

The Sporting News began naming its own Rookie of the Year in 1946, with the selection of the Phillies’ Del Ennis. In 1949, TSN began recognizing a winner from each league, and in 1957 it started selecting both a Rookie Player and Rookie Pitcher of the Year in each circuit.

In yet another version of the award, the Associated Press conducted a poll to choose the top rookies in each league in 1948. The selections were Boston’s Alvin Dark (NL) and Cleveland’s Gene Bearden (AL). Before long, the BBWAA version had eclipsed the others in recognition.

For the first decade of the BBWAA’s award, “rookie” had no formal definition. The Sporting News had criteria for its awards, and Baseball Blue Book had some sort of guidelines too, but for the most part, a rookie was whatever each individual voter decided it was. This created some problems, particularly in 1950, when the Red Sox’ Walt Dropo (41 previous at bats) won the AL award, while Indians’ home run champion Al Rosen (58 previous at bats) failed to get a vote. An article reporting the results said that voters considered Rosen’s previous efforts – including trials in each of the previous three seasons, and even an appearance in the 1948 World Series – “tantamount to veteran status.” Indeed, Rosen would not be considered a rookie even by modern definition, as he had spent all of May and June, 1949 on the Indians’ roster. (Nevertheless, for a long time Rosen was listed as holder of the AL rookie home run record with 37, until Mark McGwire shattered it with 49 in 1987.)

In 1957, the BBWAA finally adopted a formal definition of rookie. A played could not have accumulated more than 75 prior at bats or 45 innings pitched, or have been on a major league roster between May 15 and September 1 of any previous season. On December 4 of that year, the definition was amended, increasing the at-bat maximum to 90 and changing the service limit to no more than 45 days on a roster before September 1 of any past season. This remained in effect until the current rule was adopted.

The new rules came into play right away. Frank Malzone had 103 RBI and a .292 average for the 1957 Red Sox, making the All-Star team, winning the first Gold Glove Award at third base, and finishing seventh in AL MVP voting. But because Malzone had 123 at bats (and more than 45 days on the roster before September 1) in 1955-56, he was not eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award. One writer voted for him anyway, depriving Tony Kubek of unanimous selection.

Other 1957-71 recruits who lost rookie status due to the 45-day rule include Tim McCarver (NL, 1963) and Ralph Garr (NL, 1971). And there were several first-full-year stars who were not eligible in those years, but would have been under current rules:

Vada Pinson had a brilliant year for the 1959 Reds, batting .316, leading the league in runs and doubles, making the All-Star squad, and earning 27 Win Shares (hereafter abbreviated WS, Win Shares are Bill James’s player evaluation system, in my opinion more reliable than WAR; 27 WS in a season is approaching MVP territory). Pinson’s 96 previous at bats made him ineligible for the ROY, won by the Giants’ Willie McCovey, who had only 192 at bats (12 WS) in ’59.
Norm Cash, with 112 at bats under his belt, had 18 homers, a .286 batting average, and a .501 slugging percentage for the 1960 Tigers. The award went to Baltimore’s Ron Hansen (22 HR, .255).
Shortstop Zoilo Versalles batted .280 in 129 games for the Twins in 1961, after 104 previous at bats. Rookie of the Year went to Boston pitcher Don Schwall (15-7, 3.22 ERA).
In the AL in 1965, after 123 previous at bats, the Tigers’ Willie Horton hit 29 homers (third in the league), drove in 104 runs (second), and batted .273, finishing eighth in MVP voting. The award went to Baltimore’s Curt Blefary (22-70-.260).
Oakland’s Reggie Jackson, in the Year of the Pitcher, slugged 29 homers (fourth in the AL) with 25 WS for the 1968 A’s. With 118 previous AB, Jackson was ineligible for the Rookie Award, which went to Yankees’ pitcher Stan Bahnsen (17-12, 2.05, 23 WS).
Pirates’ catcher Manny Sanguillen batted .303 in 129 games in 1969, having collected 96 previous at bats. Rookie of the Year went to the Dodgers’ Ted Sizemore (4 homers, .271).
Bobby Murcer, after 106 previous at bats, had 26 homers, 82 RBI, a .259 average, and 20 WS for the 1969 Yankees. Meanwhile, Bill Melton, after 109 prior AB, had 23 HR, 87 RBI, a .255 average, and 14 WS for the White Sox. The Award went to the Royals’ Lou Piniella (11-68-.282, 16 WS).

Pinson, Horton, Jackson, and Murcer probably would have won the awards had the modern rules been in effect.

The history and complete voting results of the BBWAA Rookie of the Year (and MVP and Cy Young) Award first appeared in my 1988 SABR book, Award Voting. I subsequently updated it in eight editions of Total Baseball through 2004. It has since been “borrowed” by various on-line sources, sometimes with credit.

One thing that remains undocumented is the complete voting of the first BBWAA Rookie of the Year Award. Thirty-three writers were polled, instructed to name their top five selections for the award on a 5-4-3-2-1 point basis. The Dodgers’ Jackie Robinson emerged on top with 129 points, followed by the Giants’ Larry Jansen (105), the Yankees’ Frank Shea (67), the Athletics’ Ferris Fain (43), and the Reds’ Frankie Baumholtz (42). That leaves 109 points unaccounted for. I’ve searched high and low for the rest of the voting, with no luck. I corresponded with the winner’s widow, the runner-up, and a writer involved with the election (Edgar Munzel); none knew more than I did. The award was announced on November 9, 1947, and officially presented to Robinson at Chicago’s Regal Theatre three days later.

I started the research for Award Voting in 1986, 39 years after the first Rookie of the Year Award. It is sobering to think that it has now been another 39 years since then.

I guess I’ve lost my rookie status.

	Jeff Share on Praising the McCovey Bio Would…
	Diane on Finding the Hidden-Ball Trick
	billdeane14 on Finding the Hidden-Ball Trick
	Diane on Finding the Hidden-Ball Trick
	bafbrs on Deane Ball 2025

Dizzy Deane

Baseball history & analysis by Bill Deane

Fun with the Baseball-Reference Comparison Tool

Larry Doby and the 1954 AL MVP Award

50 Years Ago: The Year of The Bird

Praising the McCovey Bio Would Be a Stretch

A 2026 Baseball Season Forecast

Musing about the Museum Vote

Hall of Famers Who Never Saw the Light

Deane Ball 2025

A 2026 Hall of Fame Election Forecast

Reviewing Rookie Recognition & Rules